Every day, 1.7 million packages go missing in the United States. That's over 620 million packages lost or stolen each year. This Q4 alone, package theft, damage, and loss are expected to cost businesses and consumers a staggering $12 billion.
For small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), the stakes have never been higher. Q4 typically accounts for 45% of annual revenue, with e-commerce sales surging during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday rush. But as shipping volumes increase by 5–10% during peak season, so do the risks.
If you're shipping without proper protection, you're gambling with your margins. One lost package can wipe out the profit from dozens of sales. The good news? There's a smarter, more affordable way to protect your business using ShipBae's BaeGuard—a third-party shipping insurance solution that costs 45–75% less than carrier insurance and processes claims in just 7–10 business days.
The Q4 Perfect Storm: Why Package Claims Spike During the Holidays
Three major factors converge to create the perfect storm for package loss, theft, and damage during Q4.
1. Porch Piracy Reaches Peak Season
Package theft isn't just a nuisance—it’s a multi-billion-dollar crisis that intensifies during the holidays.
The numbers:
- 58 million packages were stolen in 2024, resulting in $12 billion in losses
- 87% of online shoppers are concerned about package theft during the holiday season
- Black Friday is the #1 day for package theft, with 28% of theft victims reporting incidents on this day
- The average value of a stolen package: $204
With carriers handling unprecedented volumes, delivery windows stretch longer, and packages sit unattended for hours—sometimes days. One in four Americans have had a package stolen, and the problem intensifies between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
2. Delivery Errors and Loss Increase Under Pressure
When shipping volumes spike by 5–10%, logistical systems strain under pressure. The USPS alone delivers approximately 16 billion pieces during the holiday season—a significant increase from regular months.
Common errors during Q4:
- Packages scanned incorrectly at sorting facilities
- Deliveries made to wrong addresses
- Parcels lost in transit between facilities
- Items left in unsecured locations due to rushed schedules
Even a 2–3% loss rate can translate into thousands of dollars in unrecoverable costs for SMBs.
3. Package Damage Rises in the Rush
With consumers expecting fast shipping, carriers prioritize speed over careful handling. Add winter weather conditions, and the risk of damage during transit increases significantly. Rushed handling, inadequate packaging, and increased use of temporary seasonal workers all contribute to higher damage rates.
Why SMBs Are Most Vulnerable
Large corporations can absorb shipping losses. SMBs cannot.
The Financial Impact
Let's run the numbers:
Typical Q4 scenario for a mid-sized e-commerce business:
- Monthly shipments: 1,000 packages
- Average order value: $150
- Loss rate: 2% (20 packages/month)
- Monthly losses: $3,000
- Q4 total: $9,000
But the true cost is higher when you factor in replacement costs, reshipping fees, customer service time, and lost customer lifetime value.
Carrier Insurance: Expensive and Ineffective
Most SMBs default to carrier insurance, but it has serious limitations.
High Costs
- USPS: $2.70+ per package over $100
- FedEx: $3.90+ per package over $100
- UPS: $4.80+ per package over $100
For 1,000 packages per month at $150 value, you'd pay $2,700–$4,800/month in carrier insurance.
Tedious Claims Process
Filing a carrier claim can take weeks or months. You'll need extensive documentation, wait for investigations, and face denial rates exceeding 50%.
Limited Coverage
Carriers provide only $100 default coverage and use complicated formulas based on "depreciated value" or "repair costs" rather than replacement value.
The Customer Trust Problem
Customers blame you, not the carrier, when packages go missing. Research shows 61% of theft victims receive compensation, but 25% never get refunds. When customers don't receive their orders quickly, they leave negative reviews and shop elsewhere.
BaeGuard: Your Shield Against Q4 Shipping Risks
BaeGuard is ShipBae's third-party shipping insurance program, powered by U-PIC Shipping Insurance. It covers shipments across all major carriers—USPS, UPS, FedEx, and DHL—and protects against loss, theft, and damage.
What Is BaeGuard?
BaeGuard is a comprehensive insurance solution seamlessly integrated into the ShipBae platform, offering:
- 45–75% cost savings compared to carrier insurance
- 7–10 business day claims processing
- Full declared value coverage with no depreciation formulas
- One-click activation at checkout
BaeGuard is powered by U-PIC Insurance Services, a licensed, SOC 2 Type II compliant provider trusted by Amazon, TikTok Shop, and major e-commerce platforms. With over 35 years of experience, U-PIC is known for fast claims, transparent pricing, and dedicated support.
Why BaeGuard Saves You Money
Let’s compare real-world costs based on 2025 carrier rates.
Cost Comparison: Carrier Insurance vs. BaeGuard
| Declared Value | USPS | FedEx | UPS | BaeGuard (U-PIC) | Your Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | $2.70 | $3.90 | $4.80 | $1.20 | 56–75% |
| $200 | $2.70 | $3.90 | $4.80 | $1.20 | 56–75% |
| $300 | $2.70 | $3.90 | $4.80 | $1.80 | 33–62% |
| $500 | $7.00 | $5.90 | $8.00 | $3.00 | 49–62% |
| $1,000 | $12.80 | $10.90 | $15.20 | $6.00 | 45–61% |
Notes:
- USPS: $2.70 base for $100.01–$300, then $4.60 + $1.20 per additional $100
- FedEx: $3.90 for $100.01–$300, then +$1.00 per additional $100 over $300
- UPS: $4.80 for $100.01–$300, then +$1.60 per additional $100 over $300
- BaeGuard: $0.60 per DVU (Declared Value Unit = $100), including $0.10 service fee
- BaeGuard pricing based on domestic rates; international rates are $1.10 per DVU
We’ve removed the $100 package comparison, since BaeGuard is recommended for all shipments—regardless of value—thanks to its automation, stronger protection, and faster claims.
Real-World Example: Mid-Volume Shipper
Business shipping 2,000 packages per month with $150 average value:
| Insurance Option | Cost per Package | Monthly Cost | Q4 Total (3 months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USPS | $2.70 | $5,400 | $16,200 |
| FedEx | $3.90 | $7,800 | $23,400 |
| UPS | $4.80 | $9,600 | $28,800 |
| BaeGuard | $1.20 | $2,400 | $7,200 |
Your Savings with BaeGuard:
- vs. USPS: $9,000 over Q4 (56% savings)
- vs. FedEx: $16,200 over Q4 (69% savings)
- vs. UPS: $21,600 over Q4 (75% savings)
Real-World Example: Higher-Value Products
Business shipping 500 packages per month at $500 average value:
| Insurance Option | Cost per Package | Monthly Cost | Q4 Total (3 months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USPS | $7.00 | $3,500 | $10,500 |
| FedEx | $5.90 | $2,950 | $8,850 |
| UPS | $8.00 | $4,000 | $12,000 |
| BaeGuard | $3.00 | $1,500 | $4,500 |
Why BaeGuard Protects You Better
Lightning-Fast Claims Processing
Claims processed in 7–10 business days vs. weeks or months with carriers.
Comprehensive Coverage
Full declared value coverage—no depreciation or complicated formulas. If your package is lost, stolen, or damaged, you get reimbursed for what you declared.
Seamless ShipBae Integration
- Add insurance with one click
- Auto-apply insurance rules by order value
- Track insured shipments and claims in one dashboard
Trusted Provider
U-PIC powers shipping insurance for:
- Amazon (domestic USPS shipments)
- TikTok Shop (automatic coverage up to $200)
- DHL eCommerce (first $100 coverage)
- http://Fulfill.com and other major fulfillment networks
How to Protect Your Margins with BaeGuard: Step-by-Step Guide
Step 1: Assess Your Risk
Calculate your exposure:
Monthly shipments × Average order value × 2% loss rate = Monthly risk
Example: 500 shipments × $100 AOV × 2% = $1,000/month risk ($3,000 over Q4)
Step 2: Set Up ShipBae
- Create free account at http://ShipBae.com
- Connect carrier accounts or use ShipBae's discounted rates (up to 82% off UPS, 89% off USPS)
- Integrate your e-commerce platform (Shopify, Walmart, Temu, eBay, etc.)
Step 3: Activate BaeGuard
- Go to Settings > Insurance in ShipBae dashboard
- Enable BaeGuard
- Set insurance preferences:
- Auto-insure all shipments
- Auto-insure packages above threshold (e.g., $50+)
- Manual selection per shipment
Pro tip: Auto-insure all Q4 packages above $50. The small cost ($0.60-$1.80/package) beats replacing lost orders.
Step 4: Integrate Into Workflow
Insurance automatically calculates and applies when creating labels:
- Cost transparently displayed
- Insurance linked to tracking number
- All data ready for claims if needed
For high-volume shippers:
- Use batch shipping for bulk processing
- Set automation rules by product type or destination
- Apply Smart Manifest for bulk label creation
Step 5: File Claims Fast (If Needed)
- Navigate to Orders > Claims in dashboard
- Select shipment and click File Claim
- Upload documentation (tracking, order details, photos)
- Submit claim
- Track status and receive ACH reimbursement in 7-10 days
Best practices:
- File claims within 90 days of shipment
- Keep records of all shipments
- Photo fragile/expensive items before shipping
- Respond promptly to information requests
ROI Examples
Scenario 1: Small Boutique
Profile:
- Monthly shipments: 300 packages
- Average order value: $75
- Q4 loss rate: 2% (6 packages/month)
Without BaeGuard:
- Monthly losses: $450
- Q4 losses: $1,350
- Customer service time: 12 hours
With BaeGuard:
- BaeGuard cost: $180/month ($540 for Q4)
- Claims reimbursed: $1,350
- Net savings: $810
Result: 150% ROI plus faster resolutions and happier customers.
Scenario 2: Mid-Sized Brand
Profile:
- Monthly shipments: 2,000 packages
- Average order value: $150
- Q4 loss rate: 3% (60 packages/month)
Without BaeGuard:
- Monthly losses: $9,000
- Q4 losses: $27,000
- Customer service time: 80 hours
With BaeGuard:
- BaeGuard cost: $2,400/month ($7,200 for Q4)
- Claims reimbursed: $27,000
- Net savings: $19,800
Result: 275% ROI—enough to fund marketing, hire seasonal help, or invest in growth.
Beyond Insurance: 5 Additional Protection Tips
BaeGuard is your safety net, but here are proactive steps to reduce risk:
1. Upgrade Your Packaging
- Use double-walled boxes for heavy items
- Add bubble wrap, foam, or air pillows
- Seal with heavy-duty tape (2+ inches wide)
- Consider plain boxes (less tempting to thieves)
2. Require Signature Confirmation
For high-value orders ($200+), require signature at delivery. Costs $2-$4 per package but prevents porch theft.
3. Offer Real-Time Tracking
- Auto-send tracking emails
- Provide branded tracking pages
- Send delivery notifications
- Encourage customers to use tracking apps
4. Validate Shipping Addresses
Use ShipBae's address validation to catch errors before shipping, reducing failed deliveries and returns.
5. Communicate Proactively
- Send order confirmations with delivery estimates
- Provide shipping confirmations with tracking
- Alert customers upon delivery
- Follow up post-delivery to confirm receipt
Take Action Now
Q4 is your most profitable quarter—but also your riskiest. With 1.7 million packages going missing daily and $12 billion in losses expected this holiday season, protecting your shipments isn't optional.
What we know:
- Package theft, loss, and damage spike during Q4
- SMBs face unique vulnerabilities due to thin margins
- Carrier insurance is expensive, slow, and unreliable
- BaeGuard offers 45-75% savings, fast claims, and comprehensive coverage
Ready to protect your packages this Q4?
Sign up for ShipBae and activate BaeGuard in under 5 minutes.
Already a ShipBae user? Enable BaeGuard in your dashboard today—it takes just a few clicks.
Have questions? Visit the ShipBae Help Center or contact our team.
This holiday season, don't leave your profits to chance. Let BaeGuard protect your margins so you can focus on growing your business and delighting customers.
Protect your packages. Protect your margins. Ship with confidence.
The Bottom Line
BaeGuard delivers 45–75% cost savings, faster claims, and stronger protection for every shipment—no matter the value or volume.
References
- http://Security.org : Security Doesn't Have to be Complicated. (2024). "2024 Package Theft Annual Report and Statistics." https://www.security.org/package-theft/annual-report/
- Packlane. "How Many Packages Get Lost in the US Every Day?" https://packlane.com/how-many-packages-get-lost-everyday
- ShipAid. "Understanding the Alarming Reality: How Many Packages Are Lost Each Year?" https://www.shipaid.com/blog/how-many-packages-are-lost-each-year-ecd9e
- Maskura Logistics. (2025). "Q4 Shipping Trends & Stats." https://maskuralogistics.com/q4-season-in-the-shipping-industry/
- Supply Chain 24/7. "Holiday Package Theft Expected to Impact Over 1 in 10 Americans." https://www.supplychain247.com/article/holiday-package-theft-10-percent-americans-vivint
- U-PIC Insurance Services. (2025). "ShipBae BaeGuard Launch." https://u-pic.com/august-2025-shipbae
- U-PIC Shipping Insurance. "Save 50-90% on Shipping Insurance." https://u-pic.com/
- USPS. "Shipping Insurance and Delivery Services." https://www.usps.com/ship/insurance-extra-services.htm
- Refund Retriever. (2025). "UPS Declared Value: What You Need To Know." https://www.refundretriever.com/blog/ups-declared-value/
- EasyPost. (2024). "Calculate Declared Value Across Carriers." https://www.easypost.com/blog/2024-05-24-calculate-declared-value-across-carriers/
- ShipBob. (2019). "7 Surprising Ecommerce Statistics Related to Peak Season." https://www.shipbob.com/blog/ecommerce-statistics/
- McKinsey & Company. (2025). "Holiday Shopping 2025: US Consumers Hunt for Early Deals." https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/holiday-shopping-trends
